One of the easiest ways to get good production for a discount is to “Buy Low”. Doing that will take some patience on your end, but the payoff can be well worth it in the end.
I know we all scour the internet for posts trying to tell us why we should buy or sell on guys. I also know that when people see “Buy Low” they think incredibly cheap or pennies on the dollar. While some of these guys may be in the “incredibly cheap” category, others are considered “Buy Low” based off the position they were drafted. Not all Buy Lows are created equal, but they all have value.
Jacob Degrom – SP
Probably my favorite trade targets are injured superstar players a few weeks into their injury. Especially if the team rostering them is struggling. Nobody is more willing to sell low than a fantasy manager who’s strung a few straight losses together.
When he’s healthy, Degrom is the best pitcher in baseball. Had his 2021 season not been cut short, Degrom may have very well put together one of the greatest seasons by a starting pitcher ever. 7-2, 1.08 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 146 Ks in only 92 innings. The biggest issue for Degrom has always been lack of run support, but that doesn’t seem like it will be much of an issue with this 2022 team. The Mets are currently 5th in all of baseball in total runs scored. Degrom with actual run support would be scary good.
Degrom was just moved to the 60 day IL and won’t be back until after the All-Star break. This trade is strictly meant for fantasy managers off to a hot start looking to stack their team for later in the year. Offering up sell high candidates are a good idea especially if Degrom’s fantasy owner is struggling. They’ll more than likely prioritize production now over production later. Guys like way over performing Anthony Rizzo, Ty France or Eric Hosmer would make good starting points to offer. Don’t be afraid to package a pitcher into your offer as well to try and sweeten the deal. The price for him is still high, but not as sky high as it would be if he was healthy.
Salvador Perez – C
Perez may be the most frustrating supposed fantasy baseball star this season. Well, him and teammate Whit Merrifield. After arguably the most productive offensive season by a catcher in baseball history, Perez has spent much of the first part of 2022 being unable to hit his way out of a paper bag.
While Perez owners may be frustrated, there’s still much to be excited about for those targeting him in a trade.
Through 26 games Perez is batting only .204 with six doubles, five home runs and 10 RBI. His power numbers are still very much there with an average exit velocity of 92.3 MPH (89th percentile on statcast), hard hit rate of 45.2% (71st percentile) and barrel rate of 12.3% (81st percentile). The issue has been his lack of line drive ability. A career 25% line drive guy, Perez is only hitting those lasers 15% of the time this year. He’s also seen spike in fly ball rate (37%) thanks to his odd correlating spike in launch angle.
Get him while you can. He’s slowly heating up with six hits in three of his last four games, but he should still be obtainable for a good price. Try offering an overly productive mid tier pitcher, someone like Megill, Bassit or Montas and going from there.
Max Muncy – 1B/2B/3B
I know there’s going to be a lot of people happy to see this name on the list. Despite Muncy getting off to an incredibly slow start, there’s actually plenty of reason to believe he’s the perfect buy low candidate.
With a BABIP and batting average of just .136, three home runs and 11 RBI it would seem on the surface that Muncy is having a down year. The reality is he’s just been one of the most unlucky hitters in baseball this season. If you follow any of my “Death by BABIP” articles you’d see that not all bad BABIPs are alike.
Despite the bad BABIP, Muncy still has a barrel rate of 14.1% (88th percentile), xwOBA of .381 (third best of his career) and is chasing a career low 15.4%. He’s also making zone contact 84.5% of the time which is the second best rate of his career by only 0.1%.
The batting average may stay closer to .225 this season but in a points league he’s an excellent pickup. The three position versatility is rare, he rarely strikes out and even with the low BA he has an OBP of .339 due to his high walk rate. The power will come, it always does, it will just take a little patience from fantasy owners. At this rate you may be able to get Muncy for an extreme discount so any realistic offer is worth a try. Use some pitching or outfield depth to see if you can add the struggling Muncy to help with your playoff run at the end of the year.
José Abreu – 1B/DH
Is there anyone else in baseball as quietly dominant as Abreu has been throughout his career? That quiet dominance is exactly why he’s worth making an offer for while the batting average and home runs are as down as they are.
Currently the #16 ranked first baseman in points leagues, Abreu is poised to breakout at literally any moment. One look at Abreu’s statcast chart shows exactly why. Every single thing on the chart is red. Minus sprint speed because, well, the boy is slow. But red = good. That much red = very very good.
Abreu currently has a .212 average being brought down by his .241 BABIP, both of which are a career low. Despite that, Abreu has a career high average exit velocity (94.4 MPH) and hard hit rate (58.1%). He also has the second best xwOBA (.383) and xSLG (.561) of his career. Pair all of that with an excellent 11.6% barrel rate and second lowest strikeout rate of his career and you’ve got the makings of someone who shouldn’t be struggling at all.
In short, the former MVP is seeing and hitting the ball arguably better than he ever has despite the lack of counting stats. Get him on your roster before he gets that below average 11.6% line drive rate back on track and you’re going to look like a genius. This season once again has 30 doubles, 35 home runs written all over it. Just like with Salvy I’m offering some mid tier, over producing pitching as a starting point and then working my offer from there.