Every year there are lots of guys that get drafted way too early and just don’t produce. Many of these players get drafted solely based on name recognition, which is one of the biggest mistakes any fantasy baseball manager can make. This list is meant to help you avoid some of those mistakes. Whether it’s avoiding drafting someone that won’t live up to their high ADP, or someone that you should avoid drafting all together, this list should help give at least a little insight.
Trea Turner – 2B/OF
The potential is real, last year’s production was real and I can all but guarantee that this season he will only build on last season’s success. You can check out my previous article on Turner to see just what I expect from him. My issue with Turner is his incredibly high ADP. At the moment, Turner’s average ADP sits at 14 with some drafts seeing him actually go in the top 10 off the board (#10 in NFBC ADP). With as similar as Turner is to Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates (who’s average ADP is 11 places higher at #25) it makes much more sense to take someone else in that position and grab Marte in the next round. You will end up with almost the same outfield production and can take an even more productive player in the first round.
Trevor Story – SS
Although his ADP is a bit high (35.5) the main reason he makes this list is because his most impressive ability he has shown at the Major League level is his ability to strikeout. Last season, Story struckout in 31.3% of his ABs. To put that in to perspective, Chris Davis lead all of baseball in Ks in 2016 with 219 and struckout in 32.9% of his ABs. Davis at least has the 50 HR power needed to make up for the strikeouts, Story does not. Story did, however, still manage to hit .272 on the year thanks to his .343 BABIP. Don’t give in to the hype though. Story may lead all SS’s in HRs this season, but in leagues where Ks are worth negative points Story’s value is drastically lower. Nowhere near the 4th round ADP he currently has.
JD Martinez – OF
When fully healthy, Martinez is one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. He proved that last season when he managed to hit .307 with 22 HRs despite missing 40 games due to a fracture in his elbow. The only problem is that Martinez is, once again, not fully healthy. This past week he sprained the lisfranc ligament in his foot and will be out for up to 4 weeks. He certainly will no longer be available for opening day. Lisfranc injuries can be something that take much longer than 4 weeks to recover from though, just ask Yankees pitcher Chien-Ming Wang who suffered the same injury back in 2008 and missed 3 months of the season. Whenever Martinez does come back there is no guarantee that he will be back to full health. I can’t justify drafting him unless he falls deep in the draft. With his current ADP of 52, I don’t see that happening.
Todd Frazier – 3B
Last season I drafted Frazier and rolled with him in my lineup all year. One thing I learned is that although his highs may be very high, his hitting lows are incredibly low. Right now his ADP is 72 which makes him a mid round pick, but as far as I’m concerned I don’t want him in any round. The HR numbers are always going to be there, but as far as hitting goes that is about it. He ended last season with 40 dingers but followed that up with only 72 singles, 21 doubles, 0 triples, a .225 batting average and 163 Ks. The White Sox offense hasn’t improved much and their pitching has gotten worse. The only hope for Frazier is that he gets traded to a team with a loaded lineup and a hitter friendly park by years end to help boost his counting stats to a manageable level.
Xander Bogaerts – SS
In the first half of last season, Bogaerts looked to be putting together one of the best seasons at the SS position we’ve seen in years. Through 85 games, Bogaerts batted .329, hit 10 HRs, 22 doubles, 56 RBI, scored 65 runs and stole 11 bases. After that, Bogaerts fell drastically down to earth in the second half. He finished the last half of the season hitting .253, 11 HR, 10 doubles, 33 RBI, scoring 50 runs and only stealing 2 bases. His K% went from 14.7% – 20% and his SLG, OBP, OPS and BABIP all fell drastically. Throughout Bogaerts young career, he seems to be a lot more like the 2nd half of last year than the first half. Although Boston’s lineup is loaded and he will score a lot of runs, an ADP of 27.5 means I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole.